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连云港近岸海域氮磷污染陆源解析及入海量估算

Land-based source apportionment of nitrogen and phosphorus pollution and estimation of fluxes into the sea in the coastal waters of Lianyungang City

  • 摘要: 连云港市作为江苏省重要的海港城市,近年来港口航运、临海工业及海水养殖等产业高速发展,在人类活动的影响下近岸海域氮(N)、磷(P)污染问题日益突出。基于2020年连云港近岸海域及主要入海河口的水质监测数据,结合多元统计分析、APCS-MLR模型、输出系数法和滞留系数模型,系统解析总氮(TN)、总磷(TP)污染的空间分布特征,阐明其来源贡献,并估算TN、TP的入海量。研究结果表明,连云港近岸海域TN、TP污染呈现近岸高、远岸低的分布特征,TN含量高值区分布于车轴河口、新沂河口、灌河河口和海州湾,TP含量高值区分布于新沂河口、灌河河口、连云港港口和海州湾南部。来源解析结果显示,农业源是连云港近岸海域TN、TP的主要污染源,化工产业和陆港交通活动为次要污染源;2020年连云港境内TN和TP估算排放量分别为23 890.36 t和1 868.41 t,其高值区分别在灌南县和东海县;连云港TN和TP的实测入海量分别是53 662.53 t和3 884.40 t,模型估算TN、TP入海量分别为60 149.27 t和3 269.65 t,分别存在10.78%和18.80%的误差;模型估算结果中TN和TP上游入境估算入海量分别为43 811.73 t和2 221.15 t,TN和TP境内自产估算入海量分别为16 337.54 t和1 048.50 t;畜禽养殖和农业化肥是境内自产估算入海量主要贡献源,且估算入海量高值分布在新沭河和通榆河流域、新沂河和灌河流域以及连云区、灌南县和东海县。研究可为连云港在陆海统筹背景下的污染源头管控和近岸生态环境保护的综合治理提供科学参考与决策依据。

     

    Abstract: The rapid development of the marine economy has been accompanied by increasing deterioration of coastal water quality. Lianyungang, an important seaport city in Jiangsu Province, has experienced rapid growth in recent years in sectors such as ports and shipping, coastal industries, and marine aquaculture. However, human activities have resulted in increasing levels of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) pollution in its nearshore waters. This study used water-quality monitoring data collected from nearshore waters and major river estuaries in Lianyungang in 2020 to investigate the spatial distribution, source contributions and marine input fluxes of total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP). Multivariate statistical analysis and the absolute principal component score–multiple linear regression (APCS-MLR) model was used to apportion sources, while the export coefficient method and a retention coefficient model were used to estimate the emissions of TN and TP into the sea and their fluxes into the sea. The results showed that the concentrations of TN and TP in the Coastal Waters of Lianyungang City generally decreased from the nearshore to the offshore areas. High TN concentrations were mainly found in the estuaries of the Chezhou River, Xinyi River and Guan River, and in Haizhou Bay, whereas high TP concentrations were primarily found in the estuaries of the Xinyi River and Guan River, Lianyungang Port, and the southern part of Haizhou Bay. The source apportionment results identified agricultural activities as the dominant source of both TN and TP, with chemical industries and land-port transportation activities identified as secondary contributors. In 2020, the estimated emissions of TN and TP in Lianyungang City were 23 890.36 t and 1 868.41 t, respectively. The highest TN emissions were observed in Guannan County, while the highest TP emissions were found in Donghai County. The measured TN and TP fluxes into the sea from Lianyungang City was 53 662.53 t and 3 884.40 t, respectively. By comparison, the estimated fluxes based on model were 60 149.27 t for TN and 3 269.65 t for TP, corresponding to relative errors of 10.78% and 18.80%, respectively. According to the model estimates, the estimated upstream inflow of TN and TP fluxes into the sea was 43 811.73 t and 2 221.15 t, respectively, while the estimated locally generated fluxes of TN and TP from Lianyungang City was 16 337.54 t and 1 048.50 t, respectively. Among the estimated locally generated fluxes of TN and TP, livestock and poultry farming, as well as agricultural fertilizers, were identified as the major contributors. The relatively high estimated TN and TP fluxes into the sea were mainly concentrated in the Xinmu River and Tongyu River basins, the Xinyi River and Guan River basins, as well as in Lianyun District, Guannan County, and Donghai County. This study provides a scientific basis and decision support for pollution control at the source and integrated management of nearshore ecological and environmental protection in Lianyungang City within the framework of coordinated land and sea management.

     

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