Abstract:
Based on its ecological civilization strategy, China has introduced the concept of the Ecological Conservation Redline (ECR), which aims to safeguard critical ecological spaces, maintain ecosystem integrity, and strengthen national ecological security. Wetlands are among the most valuable ecosystems on Earth and provide a wide range of ecosystem services, including biodiversity conservation, water conservation, water purification, carbon sequestration, and soil retention. Evaluating the conservation effectiveness of wetlands located within the ECR is therefore of great significance for understanding ecosystem responses to ecological protection policies and supporting sustainable development. This study focused on wetlands located within the ECR of Changde City, Hunan Province. The ecological evolution of these wetlands from 2016 to 2024 was systematically assessed using an integrated framework combining transfer matrix analysis, the InVEST model, and the DPSIR model. Analyses were conducted from the perspectives of spatial pattern dynamics, ecosystem service changes, and ecological conservation effectiveness. The results indicate that significant changes occurred in the spatial structure of wetlands within the ECR during the study period. Specifically, the area of marsh wetlands increased substantially from 206.6 km
2 in 2016 to 247.6 km
2 in 2024, becoming the dominant wetland type. In contrast, the areas of river wetlands and artificial wetlands declined considerably. These changes reflect a gradual shift toward natural wetland restoration under strict ecological protection policies. Meanwhile, ecosystem service performance improved markedly. Water conservation capacity exhibited evident interannual fluctuations, largely influenced by climatic variability, but remained relatively stable overall throughout the study period. Both carbon storage and water purification services improved substantially. Carbon storage density increased from 1 280.97 t/km
2 in 2016 to 1 662.36 t/km
2 in 2024, while total nitrogen and total phosphorus exports declined, indicating enhanced nutrient retention capacity and improved water quality regulation. Furthermore, the ecological protection effectiveness index increased markedly from 0.760 4 in 2016 to 1.822 2 in 2024, with a pronounced acceleration after 2020 following strengthened ecological restoration and conservation measures. The findings suggest that the implementation of the Ecological Conservation Redline policy has played a positive role in promoting wetland restoration, improving ecosystem services, and strengthening ecological security at the regional scale. This study provides empirical evidence for evaluating the effectiveness of ecological conservation policies and offers a scientific basis for wetland management and ecological protection under the framework of sustainable development. The results further indicate that Changde City has achieved notable progress toward the realization of SDG 15.1, highlighting the potential of ECR-based conservation strategies for advancing biodiversity conservation and ecosystem sustainability in ecologically sensitive regions.