Abstract: Habitat loss and fragmentation caused by climate change may threaten the survival of wildlife and have become important concerns in biodiversity conservation. The Black-necked Crane (Grus nigricollis) is a national first-class protected animal in China and is also the only crane species that lives year-round in plateau wetlands. Therefore, investigating the changes in the distribution pattern of suitable habitats for G. nigricollis under current and future climate change is of great significance for the conservation and management of this species and its habitats. Based on winter field survey data of G. nigricollis collected in Xizang Autonomous Region from 2021 to 2023, this study used the MaxEnt model to predict the potential suitable habitats of G. nigricollis during the wintering period under current and future climate scenarios in Xizang Autonomous Region. The model performed well, with a mean AUC value of 0.978. The prediction results showed that precipitation of the wettest month (26.5%) and maximum temperature of the warmest month (21.1%) were the key factors affecting the distribution of G. nigricollis. In addition, isothermality, precipitation seasonality, mean diurnal range, and precipitation of the driest month also had significant effects on its distribution during the wintering period. Under current climatic conditions, the total suitable habitat area for G. nigricollis during the wintering period in Xizang Autonomous Region was 43 259 km², accounting for 3.60% of the total area of the region. Highly suitable habitats were mainly concentrated in the middle reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River valley, indicating that this area is currently the main concentration zone of wintering habitats for the species in Xizang. Under future climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5) for the periods 2021—2040 and 2041—2060, the suitable habitat area for G. nigricollis during the wintering period showed a continuous expansion trend. The newly added suitable areas were mainly distributed around the current suitable habitats, and were also found in the wetlands of eastern Xizang and the Ali Region. In addition, the centroid migration results showed that, with climate warming, the centroid of suitable wintering habitats for G. nigricollis would shift northwestward to areas of higher latitude and higher elevation. Overall, this study provides a quantitative assessment of the impacts of climate change on the wintering habitat of the Black-necked Crane in Xizang Autonomous Region. Our findings offer a scientific basis for identifying future conservation priorities, optimizing habitat protection strategies, and improving adaptive management for this iconic alpine wetland species under ongoing climate change.